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How big is Psycholonials?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 29k–47k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Psycholonials and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Psycholonials's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 521–16k
best case 1.1M (Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony)
Games like Psycholonials

A typical game among these

≈ 521–16k copies

≈ $2k–$109k after Steam's cut

from ~22 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony at ≈ 806k–1.3M copies, ≈ $8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 17 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Female Protagonist (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Detective, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Detective + Story Rich + Mystery; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Forget Me Not: My Organic Garden
2015
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
20x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$59k–$159k after Steam's cut $108k–$245k before Steam's cut
$9.99
442 reviews
Very Positive
IndieSimulation
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony
2017
Est. copies
≈ 806k–1.3M
1066x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDetective
IN CELL
2023
Est. copies
≈ 446–725
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18 reviews
Mixed
CasualPhilosophical
Dead Herring VR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 546–887
SteamSpy 50k–100k
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Free
Free
22 reviews
Positive
AdventureVisual Novel
The Reluctant Redemption of Verity Lux
2024
Est. copies
≈ 174–282
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$956–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$19.99
7 reviews
7 user reviews
Visual NovelCrime
Cat's Menace
2021
Est. copies
≈ 347–564
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$190–$511 after Steam's cut $345–$786 before Steam's cut
$1.99
14 reviews
Mixed
ExperimentalIdler
Demonheart
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26k–42k
35x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$144k–$386k after Steam's cut $261k–$594k before Steam's cut
$19.99
759 reviews
Very Positive
LGBTQ+Visual Novel
IZGUB 2001
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
$3.99
127 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureRPG

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