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How many copies did Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 164k–266k
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.9M–10.0M
best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)
Games like Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew

A typical game among these

≈ 7.9M–10.0M copies

≈ $86.0M–$122.9M after Steam's cut

from ~172k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Fantasy (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (3 of 8) and Character Customization (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Choices Matter + Dungeons & Dragons + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 5M–10M
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≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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StrategyFantasy
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
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Slay the Spire
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Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
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220k reviews
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FOR HONOR™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$46.9M–$126.2M after Steam's cut $85.3M–$194.2M before Steam's cut
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Mixed
MedievalSwordplay
Darkest Dungeon®
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.8M–11.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.5M–$125.1M after Steam's cut $84.6M–$192.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
163k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based CombatDark Fantasy
Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.3M–34.6M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
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Overwhelmingly Positive
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Mount & Blade: Warband
2010
Est. copies
≈ 10.9M–17.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
172k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MedievalRPG

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