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How many copies did Tetragon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
from 46 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tetragon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tetragon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 247k–7.0M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like Tetragon

A typical game among these

≈ 247k–7.0M copies

≈ $489k–$44.4M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (8 of 8) and Puzzle-Platformer (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

LIMBO
2011
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.5M–$55.8M before Steam's cut
$12.49
62k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerIndie
The Bridge
2013
Est. copies
≈ 275k–447k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$756k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerHand-drawn
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
29x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Quantum Conundrum
2012
Est. copies
≈ 136k–221k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$337k–$905k after Steam's cut $612k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$8.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
Gravitas
2019
Est. copies
≈ 206k–334k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayPuzzle
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
25x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Munin
2014
Est. copies
≈ 64k–103k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$87k–$235k after Steam's cut $159k–$361k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle-Platformer
Defy Gravity Extended
2016
Est. copies
≈ 355k–576k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$194k–$522k after Steam's cut $353k–$803k before Steam's cut
$1.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPlatformer

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