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How many copies did El Paso, Elsewhere sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 37k–60k
$203k–$545k after Steam's cut $368k–$838k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid El Paso, Elsewhere and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including El Paso, Elsewhere's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.5M–7.2M
best case 9.1M (Resident Evil 4)
Games like El Paso, Elsewhere

A typical game among these

≈ 3.5M–7.2M copies

≈ $33.8M–$91.1M after Steam's cut

from ~64k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Resident Evil 4 at ≈ 7.0M–11.3M copies, ≈ $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (3 of 3) and Third-Person Shooter (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Resident Evil 4
2023
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.3M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut $139.0M–$316.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorAction
Max Payne 3
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.4M–$60.2M after Steam's cut $40.7M–$92.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
Quantum Break
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.3M after Steam's cut $25.9M–$58.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.