How much revenue did LumbearJack make?

$31k–$84k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did LumbearJack sell?

Q: How many copies did LumbearJack sell?

9k to 14k copies, based on its 352 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 9k–14k; $31k–$84k after Steam's cut $57k–$129k before Steam's cut; from 352 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid LumbearJack and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including LumbearJack's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–13.4M

best case 38.8M (Portal 2)

Games like LumbearJack

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–13.4M copies

≈ $14.5M–$71.9M after Steam's cut

from ~99k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 38k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Physics (5 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Superliminal 2020	Est. copies ≈ 848k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.7M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	34k reviews Very Positive	PuzzleFirst-Person
Human Fall Flat 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.5M–15.4M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	227k reviews Very Positive	Co-opFunny
BONEWORKS 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	36k reviews Very Positive	VRPhysics
Teardown 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.0M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	136k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DestructionPhysics
Besiege 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationSandbox
Portal 2 2011	Est. copies ≈ 29.5M–48.0M 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	467k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Platformer Puzzle
Portal 2007	Est. copies ≈ 12.6M–20.5M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	199k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
LIMBO 2011	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.5M–$55.8M before Steam's cut	$12.49	62k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle-PlatformerIndie