How much revenue did Melatonin make?

$838k–$2.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Melatonin sell?

Q: How many copies did Melatonin sell?

203k to 330k copies, based on its 8k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 203k–330k; $838k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut; from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Melatonin and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Melatonin's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 674k–3.5M

best case 4.6M (Muse Dash)

Games like Melatonin

A typical game among these

≈ 674k–3.5M copies

≈ $4.1M–$6.9M after Steam's cut

from ~56k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Muse Dash at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Rhythm (4 of 4) and Music (3 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Music + Rhythm, priced around $3.
When they shipped: 2 of the 4 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Muse Dash 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	122k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
Rhythm Doctor 2025	Est. copies ≈ 671k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	27k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RhythmMusic
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL 2024	Est. copies ≈ 39k–64k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $269k–$723k after Steam's cut $489k–$1.1M before Steam's cut	$24.99	2k reviews Very Positive	ActionCasual
A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.9M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut	$5.99	84k reviews Very Positive	RhythmMusic