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How many copies did Tinykin sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 108k–175k
$742k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tinykin and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tinykin's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 654k–869k
best case 4.5M (Stumble Guys)
Games like Tinykin

A typical game among these

≈ 654k–869k copies

≈ $5.9M–$13.4M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stumble Guys at ≈ 3.4M–5.6M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (5 of 8) and Third Person (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Racing. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Battle Royale + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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6.3x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.