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How many copies did Death's Door sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 552k–897k
$3.0M–$8.2M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.6M before Steam's cut
from 22k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Death's Door and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Death's Door's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 232k–654k
best case 15.2M (Fall Guys)
Games like Death's Door

A typical game among these

≈ 232k–654k copies

≈ $2.0M–$11.0M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Fall Guys at ≈ 11.6M–18.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 643 to 144k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (6 of 8) and Platformer (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party Game + Battle Royale. The breakout hits carry Party Game + Battle Royale + Massively Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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2.8x vs typical
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