How much revenue did Frostpunk 2 make?

$8.3M–$22.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Frostpunk 2 sell?

Q: How many copies did Frostpunk 2 sell?

674k to 1.1M copies, based on its 27k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 674k–1.1M; $8.3M–$22.4M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.5M before Steam's cut; from 27k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Frostpunk 2 and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Frostpunk 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–4.5M

best case 7.7M (Factorio)

Games like Frostpunk 2

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–4.5M copies

≈ $13.1M–$59.1M after Steam's cut

from ~38k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.9M–9.5M copies, ≈ $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 86k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Base-Building (3 of 3) and City Builder (2 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Dwarf Fortress 2022	Est. copies ≈ 783k–1.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	32k reviews Very Positive	DwarfColony Sim
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M 6.3x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut	$35.00	236k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
Against the Storm 2023	Est. copies ≈ 934k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	38k reviews Very Positive	StrategyCity Builder