How much revenue did Nocturnal make?

$599k–$1.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Nocturnal sell?

Q: How many copies did Nocturnal sell?

128k to 208k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 128k–208k; $599k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nocturnal and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nocturnal's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17k–27k

best case 326k (Anomaly Agent)

Games like Nocturnal

A typical game among these

≈ 17k–27k copies

≈ $43k–$83k after Steam's cut

from ~516 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Anomaly Agent at ≈ 249k–404k copies, ≈ $820k–$2.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 273 reviews in their first month; the range was 86 to 5k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share 2D Platformer (5 of 8) and Action-Adventure (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + 2D Platformer, priced around $8. The breakout hits carry Action Roguelike + Hack and Slash + Souls-like; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Anomaly Agent 2024	Est. copies ≈ 249k–404k 19x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $820k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut	$11.99	10k reviews Very Positive	Action Roguelike2D Platformer
Tadpole Tales 2021	Est. copies ≈ 22k–35k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	874 reviews Very Positive	Shoot 'Em UpHand-drawn
HerrAnwalt: Lawyers Legacy 2022	Est. copies ≈ 12k–20k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $20k–$55k after Steam's cut $37k–$84k before Steam's cut	$5.99	498 reviews Mostly Positive	Early AccessAction
Primal Light 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11k–17k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $23k–$62k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut	$7.99	426 reviews Very Positive	2D PlatformerPixel Graphics
GravNewton 2017	Est. copies ≈ 16k–26k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $45k–$120k after Steam's cut $81k–$184k before Steam's cut	$9.99	471 reviews Mostly Positive	Side ScrollerPrecision Platformer
Creepy Tale: Some Other Place 2024	Est. copies ≈ 16k–27k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $45k–$121k after Steam's cut $82k–$186k before Steam's cut	$9.99	659 reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
JumpJet Rex 2015	Est. copies ≈ 26k–42k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $71k–$192k after Steam's cut $130k–$296k before Steam's cut	$9.99	533 reviews Very Positive	Side Scroller2D Platformer
Creepy Tale 2020	Est. copies ≈ 74k–120k 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $101k–$273k after Steam's cut $185k–$420k before Steam's cut	$4.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle-PlatformerDark