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How many copies did Dungeons 4 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 83k–134k
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dungeons 4 and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Dungeons 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.5M–18.7M
best case 20.7M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)
Games like Dungeons 4

A typical game among these

≈ 5.5M–18.7M copies

≈ $64.4M–$216.2M after Steam's cut

from ~249k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies, ≈ $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Building (4 of 5) and City Builder (3 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.7M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
380k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Planet Zoo
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut
$44.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
138k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.