How much revenue did Frostpunk make?

$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Frostpunk sell?

Q: How many copies did Frostpunk sell?

4.2M to 6.8M copies, based on its 138k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4.2M–6.8M; $34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut; from 138k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Frostpunk and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Frostpunk's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.6M–7.9M

best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)

Games like Frostpunk

A typical game among these

≈ 3.6M–7.9M copies

≈ $54.9M–$96.1M after Steam's cut

from ~100k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the range was 19k to 86k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Base-Building (6 of 8) and City Builder (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $30.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut	$35.00	236k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.6M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut $92.1M–$209.6M before Steam's cut	$34.99	183k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRTS
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.1M–$70.3M after Steam's cut $47.5M–$108.1M before Steam's cut	$39.99	96k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRTS
Cities: Skylines 2015	Est. copies ≈ 14.2M–23.1M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	291k reviews Very Positive	City Builder Simulation
Dyson Sphere Program 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	92k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationSpace
Prison Architect 2015	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $31.0M–$83.3M after Steam's cut $56.3M–$128.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	77k reviews Very Positive	SimulationBuilding
Planet Zoo 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut	$44.99	98k reviews Very Positive	Management Simulation
Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $35.7M–$96.1M after Steam's cut $65.0M–$147.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	103k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StrategyRTS