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How many copies did Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Cowabunga Collection sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 26k–42k
$283k–$760k after Steam's cut $514k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Cowabunga Collection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Cowabunga Collection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163–830
best case 2.6M (Street Fighter™ 6)
Games like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Cowabunga Collection

A typical game among these

≈ 163–830 copies

≈ $189–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~8 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Street Fighter™ 6 at ≈ 2.0M–3.2M copies, ≈ $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 14k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Fighter (8 of 8) and Arcade (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2D Fighter + Fighting, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Fighting + Character Customization + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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