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How many copies did Coldage sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 223–363
$858–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 9 reviews (9 user reviews)
Only 9 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Coldage and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Coldage's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 391–2k
best case 23k (BE-A Walker)
Games like Coldage

A typical game among these

≈ 391–2k copies

≈ $673–$754 after Steam's cut

from ~14 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 5 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (2 of 5), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: BE-A Walker at ≈ 17k–28k copies, ≈ $47k–$127k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 164.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (2 of 5) and Hand-drawn (2 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Shoot 'Em Up + Experimental, priced around $10.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BE-A Walker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
50x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$47k–$127k after Steam's cut $86k–$196k before Steam's cut
$9.99
696 reviews
Mostly Positive
Shoot 'Em UpDifficult
Shadow Walls
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$365–$980 after Steam's cut $663–$2k before Steam's cut
$0.99
54 reviews
Very Positive
Hidden ObjectSurvival
Before Sunset: 台山
2023
Est. copies
≈ 198–322
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$272–$731 after Steam's cut $494–$1k before Steam's cut
$4.99
8 reviews
8 user reviews
HorrorMystery
All is Fair in Dust and Air
2021
Est. copies
≈ 298–484
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$409–$1k after Steam's cut $744–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
12 reviews
Mostly Positive
Visual NovelRomance
Panacle: Back To Wild
2022
Est. copies
≈ 347–564
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$381–$1k after Steam's cut $692–$2k before Steam's cut
$3.99
14 reviews
Mixed
Trading Card GameTurn-Based Strategy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.