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How many copies did Prose & Codes sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–14k
$23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut
from 342 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Prose & Codes and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Prose & Codes's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17k–27k
best case 1.1M (Draw & Guess)
Games like Prose & Codes

A typical game among these

≈ 17k–27k copies

≈ $56k–$183k after Steam's cut

from ~683 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Draw & Guess at ≈ 874k–1.4M copies, ≈ $1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 161 reviews in their first month; the range was 57 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (5 of 8) and Word Game (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party + Party Game, priced around $12. The breakout hits carry Party + Online Co-Op + Party Game; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.1x vs typical
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52x vs typical
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