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How many copies did Fences 4 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
from 254 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fences 4 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fences 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 389k–576k
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Fences 4

A typical game among these

≈ 389k–576k copies

≈ $2.3M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Design & Illustration (8 of 8) and Photo Editing (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Mature + Anime + First-Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Movavi Video Editor Plus 2020 - Video Editing Software
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Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
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Video ProductionUtilities
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
123x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
ShareX
2015
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≈ 415k–674k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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8k reviews
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Photo EditingUtilities
Black Ink
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$207k–$557k after Steam's cut $377k–$858k before Steam's cut
$34.99
518 reviews
Very Positive
Design & IllustrationUtilities
ePic Character Generator
2015
Est. copies
≈ 48k–78k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Free
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Design & IllustrationUtilities
Pixel Studio - pixel art editor
2019
Est. copies
≈ 178k–289k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Animation & ModelingPixel Graphics
Krita
2014
Est. copies
≈ 462k–751k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Design & IllustrationSoftware
Fences 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 29k–47k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
833 reviews
Mixed
UtilitiesSoftware

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.