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How many copies did Chivalry 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
$16.2M–$43.4M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.8M before Steam's cut
from 59k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chivalry 2 and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Chivalry 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 235k–790k
best case 1.1M (Conqueror's Blade)
Games like Chivalry 2

A typical game among these

≈ 235k–790k copies

≈ $1.9M–$5.3M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 3 similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Conqueror's Blade at ≈ 859k–1.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (2 of 3) and Building (1 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Tactical.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Conqueror's Blade
2019
Est. copies
≈ 859k–1.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
MedievalTactical
Mortal Online 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 345k–561k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
14k reviews
Mixed
MMORPGSandbox
VALHALL: Harbinger
2020
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$103k–$276k after Steam's cut $187k–$425k before Steam's cut
$29.99
502 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessVikings

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.