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How many copies did Orb of Creation sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 56k–90k
$184k–$494k after Steam's cut $334k–$759k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Orb of Creation and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Orb of Creation's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–25k
best case 323k (PickCrafter)
Games like Orb of Creation

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–25k copies

≈ $3k–$41k after Steam's cut

from ~278 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: PickCrafter at ≈ 246k–400k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 55 reviews in their first month; the range was 15 to 676.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Idler (7 of 8) and Resource Management (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mining + Idler.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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IdlerClicker

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