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How many copies did Nuclear Frost sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 422–685
$231–$620 after Steam's cut $420–$954 before Steam's cut
from 17 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nuclear Frost and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nuclear Frost's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 399–1k
best case 9k (Rabbit Hole)
Games like Nuclear Frost

A typical game among these

≈ 399–1k copies

≈ $722–$3k after Steam's cut

from ~20 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Rabbit Hole at ≈ 7k–11k copies, ≈ $15k–$41k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 115 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action-Adventure (5 of 8) and Idler (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Gore + Violent, priced around $8.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Outbreak SimAlternate History
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Early AccessAction
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Rabbit Hole
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AdventureMagic

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