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How many copies did Thriving City: Song sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 84k–136k
$438k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $796k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thriving City: Song and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thriving City: Song's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 159k–1.5M
best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)
Games like Thriving City: Song

A typical game among these

≈ 159k–1.5M copies

≈ $1.3M–$25.3M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 675 to 44k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share City Builder (8 of 8) and Historical (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dawn of Man
2019
Est. copies
≈ 514k–836k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.6M before Steam's cut
$24.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Manor Lords
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
7.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.1M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
93k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Children of the Nile: Enhanced Edition
2008
Est. copies
≈ 30k–48k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$66k–$176k after Steam's cut $119k–$271k before Steam's cut
$7.99
472 reviews
Very Positive
Pharaoh™: A New Era
2023
Est. copies
≈ 134k–218k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$847k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$22.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
City BuilderBuilding
Ostriv
2020
Est. copies
≈ 191k–310k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessStrategy
HUMANKIND™
2021
Est. copies
≈ 715k–1.2M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.8M–$26.4M after Steam's cut $17.9M–$40.7M before Steam's cut
$49.99
29k reviews
Mixed
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Zeus + Poseidon
2016
Est. copies
≈ 82k–133k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$225k–$606k after Steam's cut $410k–$933k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
City BuilderStrategy
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
23x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.