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How many copies did Eden Island sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
$26k–$71k after Steam's cut $48k–$109k before Steam's cut
from 257 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Eden Island and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Eden Island's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–13.1M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like Eden Island

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–13.1M copies

≈ $35.8M–$115.5M after Steam's cut

from ~121k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 182k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World Survival Craft (8 of 8) and Survival (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Green Hell
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.4M–$54.8M after Steam's cut $37.0M–$84.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
103k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
Forager
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
6.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Grounded
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.2M–$70.4M after Steam's cut $47.6M–$108.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
ASTRONEER
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
139k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOpen World
ICARUS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.2M after Steam's cut $29.9M–$68.0M before Steam's cut
$34.99
69k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft

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