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How many copies did Sky Captain's Return sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$450–$1k after Steam's cut $819–$2k before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sky Captain's Return and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sky Captain's Return's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15k–28k
best case 2.7M (Battlerite)
Games like Sky Captain's Return

A typical game among these

≈ 15k–28k copies

≈ $193k after Steam's cut

from ~558 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Battlerite at ≈ 2.0M–3.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 170 reviews in their first month; the range was 57 to 232.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MOBA (5 of 8) and Arena Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Top-Down Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Surviv.io - 2D Battle Royale
2020
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Mixed
Battle RoyaleTop-Down Shooter
Battlerite
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
106x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
59k reviews
Very Positive
PvPMultiplayer
Monday Night Combat
2011
Est. copies
≈ 76k–124k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$105k–$282k after Steam's cut $190k–$433k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
Hero ShooterAction
Rage of Car Force: Car Crashing Games
2020
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
875 reviews
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RacingCasual
Games of Glory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19k–31k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
558 reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayMOBA
3D Aim Trainer
2021
Est. copies
≈ 83k–135k
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
Early Accesse-sports
Modern Tanks: War Tank Games
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
380 reviews
Mixed
TanksFree to Play
Fishards
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Free
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282 reviews
Very Positive
PvPMultiplayer

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.