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How many copies did Team Fortress Classic sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 587k–955k
$806k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Team Fortress Classic and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Team Fortress Classic's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 19.3M–100.7M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Team Fortress Classic

A typical game among these

≈ 19.3M–100.7M copies

≈ $86.3M–$91.2M after Steam's cut

from ~757k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (4 of 4) and Shooter (4 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2000 to 2016, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Team Fortress 2
2007
Est. copies
≈ 79.1M–128.6M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.3M reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayHero Shooter
Counter-Strike
2000
Est. copies
≈ 16.6M–26.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
262k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionFPS

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.