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How many copies did WARCANA sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–20k
$59k–$158k after Steam's cut $107k–$243k before Steam's cut
from 508 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid WARCANA and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including WARCANA's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 267k–620k
best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)
Games like WARCANA

A typical game among these

≈ 267k–620k copies

≈ $1.3M–$1.9M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Battler (8 of 8) and Card Game (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Roguelike Deckbuilder + Card Game, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based + Singleplayer + Roguelike Deckbuilder; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.