How much revenue did Dawn of Defiance make?

$253k–$680k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Dawn of Defiance sell?

Q: How many copies did Dawn of Defiance sell?

46k to 75k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 46k–75k; $253k–$680k after Steam's cut $460k–$1.0M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dawn of Defiance and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dawn of Defiance's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.4M–7.5M

best case 129.3M (Terraria)

Games like Dawn of Defiance

A typical game among these

≈ 5.4M–7.5M copies

≈ $39.8M–$52.2M after Steam's cut

from ~124k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World Survival Craft (8 of 8) and Survival (8 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M 5.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
No Man's Sky 2016	Est. copies ≈ 17.5M–28.5M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	422k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
The Long Dark 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–6.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	124k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Subnautica 2018	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.8M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	381k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Don't Starve Together 2016	Est. copies ≈ 22.6M–36.8M 4.4x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	544k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
ASTRONEER 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	139k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOpen World
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M 13x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Don't Starve 2013	Est. copies ≈ 7.2M–11.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $19.7M–$53.0M after Steam's cut $35.8M–$81.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	114k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft