How much revenue did No Man's Sky make?

$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did No Man's Sky sell?

Q: How many copies did No Man's Sky sell?

17.5M to 28.5M copies, based on its 422k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 17.5M–28.5M; $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut; from 422k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid No Man's Sky and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including No Man's Sky's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–5.1M

best case 5.3M (ASTRONEER)

Games like No Man's Sky

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–5.1M copies

≈ $16.4M–$39.1M after Steam's cut

from ~72k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ASTRONEER at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 8k to 32k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World Survival Craft (7 of 8) and Survival (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $30.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Planet Crafter 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.6M before Steam's cut	$23.99	75k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftBase-Building
Breathedge 2021	Est. copies ≈ 460k–748k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut	$24.99	19k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSpace
Empyrion - Galactic Survival 2020	Est. copies ≈ 854k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	34k reviews Mostly Positive	Simulation Co-op
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	60k reviews Very Positive	SandboxBase-Building
Starbound 2016	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.1M–$56.9M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	123k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
ASTRONEER 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	139k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOpen World
ICARUS 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $16.4M–$44.2M after Steam's cut $29.9M–$68.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	69k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Space Engineers 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.3M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	135k reviews Very Positive	SpaceSandbox