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How many copies did Cavern of Dreams sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 39k–63k
$139k–$374k after Steam's cut $253k–$575k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cavern of Dreams and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cavern of Dreams's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8k–60k
best case 66k (Super Kiwi 64)
Games like Cavern of Dreams

A typical game among these

≈ 8k–60k copies

≈ $25k–$141k after Steam's cut

from ~720 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Super Kiwi 64 at ≈ 51k–82k copies, ≈ $42k–$112k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 172 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 526.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (8 of 8) and Collectathon (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 3D Platformer + 1990's, priced around $3.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.7x vs typical
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Super Kiwi 64
2022
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2.8x vs typical
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$2.99
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PsiloSybil
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New Super Lucky's Tale
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≈ 5k–8k
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3D Platformer1990's

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