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How many copies did DOOM 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 794k–1.3M
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DOOM 3 and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including DOOM 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10.3M–17.8M
best case 34.9M (Apex Legends™)
Games like DOOM 3

A typical game among these

≈ 10.3M–17.8M copies

≈ $87.8M–$156.0M after Steam's cut

from ~285k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Apex Legends™ at ≈ 26.6M–43.2M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 76k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 143k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (4 of 4) and Shooter (4 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Ready or Not
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$118.4M–$318.4M after Steam's cut $215.3M–$489.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
347k reviews
Mostly Positive
TacticalRealistic
DOOM Eternal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$44.5M–$119.7M after Steam's cut $80.9M–$184.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
218k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.