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How big is Apex Legends™?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
from 1.1M reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Apex Legends™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Apex Legends™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.7M–10.2M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Apex Legends™

A typical game among these

≈ 4.7M–10.2M copies

≈ $122.3M after Steam's cut

from ~202k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 55k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 144k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Battle Royale (6 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + Third-Person Shooter + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
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Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
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Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
Fall Guys
2020
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.9M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free
Free
468k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerParty Game
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
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MultiplayerPhysics
Crab Game
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
151k reviews
Very Positive
Psychological HorrorMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Stumble Guys
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
139k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Z1 Battle Royale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 6.2M–10.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Mixed
SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
279k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldExtraction Shooter

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.