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How big is NARAKA: BLADEPOINT?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
from 303k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NARAKA: BLADEPOINT and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NARAKA: BLADEPOINT's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 399–39k
best case 114k (武侠乂 The Swordsmen X)
Games like NARAKA: BLADEPOINT

A typical game among these

≈ 399–39k copies

≈ $402–$46k after Steam's cut

from ~154 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Battle Royale (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X at ≈ 87k–142k copies, ≈ $599k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 3k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Battle Royale (4 of 8) and 3D Fighter (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Open World, priced around $25.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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