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How many copies did 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 87k–142k
$599k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.8M–9.2M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X

A typical game among these

≈ 6.8M–9.2M copies

≈ $59.0M–$92.1M after Steam's cut

from ~223k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is MMORPG (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 128k reviews in their first month; the range was 57k to 145k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (4 of 8) and Action RPG (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Looter Shooter, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Looter Shooter + Third-Person Shooter + Third Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free to PlayAction RPG
Lost Ark
2022
Est. copies
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SteamSpy 50M–100M
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MMORPGFree to Play
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
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2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.2M after Steam's cut $55.6M–$126.5M before Steam's cut
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162k reviews
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≈ 15.8M–25.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free to PlayDark Fantasy
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2021
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≈ 7.4M–12.0M
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297k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut
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244k reviews
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2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$33.4M–$89.9M after Steam's cut $60.8M–$138.3M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
FPSRealistic

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