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How many copies did The Elder Scrolls® Online sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
$30.6M–$82.2M after Steam's cut $55.6M–$126.5M before Steam's cut
from 162k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Elder Scrolls® Online and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Elder Scrolls® Online's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.8M–12.4M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like The Elder Scrolls® Online

A typical game among these

≈ 5.8M–12.4M copies

≈ $61.3M–$203.6M after Steam's cut

from ~130k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (7 of 8) and MMORPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

New World: Aeternum
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
297k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Trove
2015
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
93k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
SMITE®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
120k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMOBA
Monster Hunter: World
2018
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$129.9M–$349.3M after Steam's cut $236.2M–$537.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
518k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
Fallout 76
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.3M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
141k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldMultiplayer
Tom Clancy’s The Division™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$33.2M–$89.4M after Steam's cut $60.5M–$137.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
97k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldLooter Shooter
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
86k reviews
Very Positive
MMORPGRPG

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