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How many copies did Tom Clancy’s The Division™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
$33.2M–$89.4M after Steam's cut $60.5M–$137.5M before Steam's cut
from 97k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tom Clancy’s The Division™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tom Clancy’s The Division™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 13.3M–25.4M
best case 25.0M (Destiny 2)
Games like Tom Clancy’s The Division™

A typical game among these

≈ 13.3M–25.4M copies

≈ $159.7M–$239.2M after Steam's cut

from ~436k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Destiny 2 at ≈ 19.1M–31.0M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 39k reviews in their first month; the range was 24k to 469k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (7 of 8) and FPS (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Looter Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2026, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Palworld
2026
Est. copies
≈ 12.2M–19.8M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$100.5M–$270.1M after Steam's cut $182.7M–$415.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
491k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldSurvival
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.1M–31.0M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
663k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Borderlands 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 19.8M–32.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$217.3M–$584.2M after Steam's cut $395.1M–$898.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
313k reviews
Very Positive
LootShooter
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.7M–$71.7M after Steam's cut $48.5M–$110.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
43k reviews
Mostly Positive
Looter ShooterCo-op
Borderlands 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$89.5M–$240.7M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.4M before Steam's cut
$79.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
RPGLooter Shooter
OUTRIDERS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
61k reviews
Mixed
Looter ShooterRPG

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