How many copies did Lost Ark sell?

5.0M to 8.2M copies, based on its 203k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Lost Ark make?

Lost Ark is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Lost Ark?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 5.0M–8.2M; from 203k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lost Ark and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lost Ark's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–3.8M

best case 20.7M (Path of Exile)

Games like Lost Ark

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–3.8M copies

≈ $48.7M after Steam's cut

from ~44k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Path of Exile at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share MMORPG (6 of 8) and Action RPG (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Dark Fantasy + Action RPG, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Dark Fantasy + Hack and Slash + Action RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Path of Exile 2013	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.7M 5.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	250k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayDark Fantasy
Realm of the Mad God Exalt 2012	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	48k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsMMORPG
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.8M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	86k reviews Very Positive	MMORPGRPG
Path of Exile 2 2024	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M 5.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $46.4M–$124.6M after Steam's cut $84.3M–$191.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	227k reviews Mostly Positive	Action RPGHack and Slash
Neverwinter 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.5M–4.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	40k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMMORPG
Dungeon Defenders II 2017	Est. copies ≈ 763k–1.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	22k reviews Mostly Positive	MultiplayerOnline Co-Op
STAR WARS™: The Old Republic™ 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	76k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Spiral Knights 2011	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	24k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMassively Multiplayer