How much revenue did Mutagenic make?

$689–$2k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mutagenic sell?

Q: How many copies did Mutagenic sell?

3k to 4k copies, based on its 102 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3k–4k; $689–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut; from 102 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mutagenic and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mutagenic's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–5.0M

best case 10.6M (SCP: Secret Laboratory)

Games like Mutagenic

A typical game among these

≈ 3.2M–5.0M copies

≈ $53.4M–$68.3M after Steam's cut

from ~112k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: SCP: Secret Laboratory at ≈ 8.1M–13.1M copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 30k reviews in their first month; the range was 9k to 35k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + First-Person.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Conan Exiles Enhanced 2018	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $39.3M–$105.8M after Steam's cut $71.5M–$162.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	118k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalOpen World
Realm Royale Reforged 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	56k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleFree to Play
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $36.3M–$97.7M after Steam's cut $66.0M–$150.3M before Steam's cut	$44.99	118k reviews Mixed	Early AccessSurvival
SCP: Secret Laboratory 2017	Est. copies ≈ 8.1M–13.1M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	235k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Albion Online 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	94k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMMORPG
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $37.0M–$99.6M after Steam's cut $67.3M–$153.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	148k reviews Very Positive	Co-opDark Fantasy
Enshrouded 2024	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $29.0M–$77.9M after Steam's cut $52.7M–$119.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	106k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldSurvival
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	SingleplayerAction RPG