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How many copies did Picayune Dreams sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 116k–188k
$159k–$427k after Steam's cut $289k–$657k before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Picayune Dreams and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Picayune Dreams's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–16k
best case 62k (PUSS!)
Games like Picayune Dreams

A typical game among these

≈ 6k–16k copies

≈ $22k–$44k after Steam's cut

from ~198 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: PUSS! at ≈ 47k–77k copies, ≈ $130k–$350k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 52 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 124.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychedelic + Bullet Hell, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Psychedelic + Cats + Cute; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

LONE RUIN
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$20k–$54k after Steam's cut $37k–$84k before Steam's cut
$14.99
198 reviews
Mixed
Action RoguelikeArcade
HOUSE OF GOD
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$2.99
55 reviews
Very Positive
ActionRogue-like
TROUBLE JUICE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
$4.99
146 reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAction Roguelike
Straimium Immortaly
2016
Est. copies
≈ 7k–12k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$58k before Steam's cut
$6.99
174 reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeIndie
Shoot Trip Die
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$4.99
60 reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
PUSS!
2018
Est. copies
≈ 47k–77k
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$130k–$350k after Steam's cut $237k–$539k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
PsychedelicDifficult
Waves 2: Notorious
2015
Est. copies
≈ 16k–26k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
327 reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessAction Roguelike
ATOMINE
2017
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$34k–$91k after Steam's cut $62k–$141k before Steam's cut
$9.99
360 reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.