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How big is Waves 2: Notorious?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 16k–26k
from 327 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Waves 2: Notorious and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Waves 2: Notorious's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 410k–1.2M
best case 3.9M (Brotato)
Games like Waves 2: Notorious

A typical game among these

≈ 410k–1.2M copies

≈ $2.3M–$7.5M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Brotato at ≈ 3.0M–4.8M copies, ≈ $4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 42k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (8 of 8) and Rogue-lite (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like + Action Roguelike, priced around $5.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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