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How many copies did Mediterranea Inferno sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$59k–$157k after Steam's cut $107k–$242k before Steam's cut
from 573 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mediterranea Inferno and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mediterranea Inferno's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 253k–388k
best case 1.6M (Life is Strange 2)
Games like Mediterranea Inferno

A typical game among these

≈ 253k–388k copies

≈ $926k–$1.7M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Life is Strange 2 at ≈ 1.3M–2.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 800 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (6 of 8) and Choices Matter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choices Matter + Story Rich. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack + Atmospheric + Episodic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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4.5x vs typical
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Dating SimVisual Novel
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Storyteller
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≈ 229k–372k
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≈ 216k–351k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
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