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How many copies did Minimum sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 222k–360k
from 4k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Minimum and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Minimum's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 144k–404k
best case 3.7M (Ring of Elysium)
Games like Minimum

A typical game among these

≈ 144k–404k copies

≈ $507k–$969k after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Ring of Elysium at ≈ 2.8M–4.6M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MOBA (5 of 8) and Third-Person Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Shooter.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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