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How many copies did Captain Contraption's Chocolate Factory sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 670–1k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$8k before Steam's cut
from 27 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Captain Contraption's Chocolate Factory and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Captain Contraption's Chocolate Factory's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.9M–2.1M
best case 12.1M (People Playground)
Games like Captain Contraption's Chocolate Factory

A typical game among these

≈ 1.9M–2.1M copies

≈ $13.8M–$20.4M after Steam's cut

from ~58k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: People Playground at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies, ≈ $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 22k to 122k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Building (6 of 8) and Sandbox (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox, priced around $24. The breakout hits carry Space + Sandbox + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
Brick Rigs
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.2M–$22.0M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxDestruction
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
321k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
Scrap Mechanic
2026
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.3M–$65.4M after Steam's cut $44.2M–$100.6M before Steam's cut
$28.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingSandbox
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.7M–$28.8M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationAutomobile Sim
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Farming Simulator 25
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive

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