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How many copies did Arcanima: Mist of Oblivion - Prologue sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
from 46 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Arcanima: Mist of Oblivion - Prologue and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Arcanima: Mist of Oblivion - Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 103k–1.4M
best case 2.6M (Alice: Madness Returns)
Games like Arcanima: Mist of Oblivion - Prologue

A typical game among these

≈ 103k–1.4M copies

≈ $1.6M–$6.6M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 3 similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Alice: Madness Returns at ≈ 2.0M–3.2M copies, ≈ $5.4M–$14.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Hack and Slash (3 of 3) and Horror (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Female Protagonist, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Alice: Madness Returns
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.5M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorFemale Protagonist
The Dark Pictures Anthology: The Devil in Me
2022
Est. copies
≈ 156k–254k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
6k reviews
Mixed
Choices MatterMultiple Endings
Saving Grace
2021
Est. copies
≈ 719–1k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$393–$1k after Steam's cut $715–$2k before Steam's cut
$1.99
29 reviews
Positive

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