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How many copies did Divinity II: Developer's Cut sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 338k–549k
$1.9M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.7M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Divinity II: Developer's Cut and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Divinity II: Developer's Cut's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.6M–29.2M
best case 37.7M (ELDEN RING)
Games like Divinity II: Developer's Cut

A typical game among these

≈ 11.6M–29.2M copies

≈ $221.6M–$596.5M after Steam's cut

from ~377k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ELDEN RING at ≈ 28.7M–46.6M copies, ≈ $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 171k reviews in their first month; the range was 145k to 347k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Fantasy (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.4M–$149.1M after Steam's cut $100.8M–$229.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut $278.6M–$633.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World
ELDEN RING
2022
Est. copies
≈ 28.7M–46.6M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
1.2M reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeOpen World
New World: Aeternum
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
297k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.8M–71.2M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
898k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Monster Hunter: World
2018
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$129.9M–$349.3M after Steam's cut $236.2M–$537.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
518k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.9M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG

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