How much revenue did Just Cause™ 3 make?

$34.4M–$92.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Just Cause™ 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did Just Cause™ 3 sell?

6.3M to 10.2M copies, based on its 128k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 6.3M–10.2M; $34.4M–$92.4M after Steam's cut $62.5M–$142.2M before Steam's cut; from 128k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Just Cause™ 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Just Cause™ 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.9M–9.7M

best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)

Games like Just Cause™ 3

A typical game among these

≈ 4.9M–9.7M copies

≈ $83.1M–$156.8M after Steam's cut

from ~191k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 40k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
BeamNG.drive 2015	Est. copies ≈ 20.5M–33.4M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	421k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationDriving
Ring of Elysium 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	99k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayBattle Royale
Battlefield™ V 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.7M–10.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $92.2M–$247.8M after Steam's cut $167.6M–$381.2M before Steam's cut	$49.99	270k reviews Mostly Positive	FPSMultiplayer
Battlefield™ 1 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $62.3M–$167.4M after Steam's cut $113.2M–$257.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	228k reviews Very Positive	FPSMultiplayer
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut $134.0M–$304.9M before Steam's cut	$69.99	154k reviews Very Positive	RacingOpen World
Deep Rock Galactic 2020	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	380k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DwarfCo-op
Teardown 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.0M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	136k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DestructionPhysics
Space Engineers 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	135k reviews Very Positive	SpaceSandbox