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How many copies did Project X sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 74–121
$41–$110 after Steam's cut $74–$169 before Steam's cut
from 3 reviews (3 user reviews)
Only 3 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Project X and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Project X's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 56k–83k
best case 136k (Greyfox RPG)
Games like Project X

A typical game among these

≈ 56k–83k copies

≈ $43k–$64k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Greyfox RPG at ≈ 103k–168k copies, ≈ $57k–$152k after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (8 of 8) and RPGMaker (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with RPGMaker + Anime, priced around $2.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2016. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Labyronia RPG 2
2015
Est. copies
≈ 34k–56k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$19k–$50k after Steam's cut $34k–$78k before Steam's cut
$1.99
703 reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGMakerRPG
Legend of Mysteria RPG
2015
Est. copies
≈ 45k–74k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$25k–$67k after Steam's cut $45k–$103k before Steam's cut
$1.99
929 reviews
Mostly Positive
AnimeRPG
Greyfox RPG
2015
Est. copies
≈ 103k–168k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$57k–$152k after Steam's cut $103k–$234k before Steam's cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGMakerAdventure
Destiny Warriors RPG
2015
Est. copies
≈ 62k–100k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$34k–$91k after Steam's cut $61k–$140k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Mixed
AnimeRPGMaker
Labyronia RPG
2015
Est. copies
≈ 68k–111k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$37k–$101k after Steam's cut $68k–$155k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGRPGMaker
Secret Of Magia
2015
Est. copies
≈ 49k–80k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$27k–$73k after Steam's cut $49k–$112k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Mixed
RPGMakerAnime
Storm Of Spears RPG
2016
Est. copies
≈ 25k–41k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before Steam's cut
$1.99
602 reviews
Mostly Positive
AnimeRPGMaker
Sins Of The Demon RPG
2016
Est. copies
≈ 45k–73k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$25k–$66k after Steam's cut $45k–$102k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeRPG

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.