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How many copies did Ironclad Tactics sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 40k–64k
$163k–$438k after Steam's cut $297k–$675k before Steam's cut
from 626 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ironclad Tactics and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ironclad Tactics's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–1.7M
best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)
Games like Ironclad Tactics

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–1.7M copies

≈ $8.8M–$14.3M after Steam's cut

from ~45k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Game (6 of 8) and Deckbuilding (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Game + Deckbuilding, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Roguelike Deckbuilder + Rogue-like + Deckbuilding; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2019
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≈ 6.3M–10.3M
4.9x vs typical
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