How much revenue did Mirthwood make?

$406k–$1.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mirthwood sell?

Q: How many copies did Mirthwood sell?

59k to 96k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 59k–96k; $406k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $738k–$1.7M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mirthwood and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Mirthwood's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 109k–892k

best case 1.7M (Forager)

Games like Mirthwood

A typical game among these

≈ 109k–892k copies

≈ $741k–$6.9M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Forager at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World Survival Craft (3 of 3) and Sandbox (3 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Forager 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M 12x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Nova Lands 2023	Est. copies ≈ 88k–143k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $482k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $877k–$2.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	AutomationBase-Building
Outpath 2023	Est. copies ≈ 78k–126k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $321k–$863k after Steam's cut $583k–$1.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	SimulationBase-Building