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How many copies did Hodgepodge Hunch sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–6k
$5k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
from 159 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hodgepodge Hunch and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hodgepodge Hunch's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 408k–2.0M
best case 29.9M (Among Us)
Games like Hodgepodge Hunch

A typical game among these

≈ 408k–2.0M copies

≈ $2.0M–$2.9M after Steam's cut

from ~39k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Among Us at ≈ 22.8M–37.0M copies, ≈ $31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (4 of 8) and Social Deduction (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Social Deduction + Space, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Space + 2D + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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