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How many copies did The Murder of H. sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 198–322
$544–$1k after Steam's cut $989–$2k before Steam's cut
from 8 reviews (8 user reviews)
Only 8 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Murder of H. and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Murder of H.'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–6k
best case 15k (Curious Cases)
Games like The Murder of H.

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–6k copies

≈ $14k–$23k after Steam's cut

from ~121 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Curious Cases at ≈ 11k–18k copies, ≈ $21k–$58k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 55 reviews in their first month; the range was 36 to 82.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and VR (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Horror, priced around $7. The breakout hits carry Exploration + PvP + Competitive; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy under 20k
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