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How many copies did Start Over sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$39k–$105k after Steam's cut $71k–$162k before Steam's cut
from 382 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Start Over and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Start Over's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.6M–13.1M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like Start Over

A typical game among these

≈ 7.6M–13.1M copies

≈ $86.6M–$149.6M after Steam's cut

from ~301k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 178k reviews in their first month; the range was 86k to 184k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Crafting (8 of 8) and Survival (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
Satisfactory
2024
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$76.3M–$205.2M after Steam's cut $138.8M–$315.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingAutomation
Sons Of The Forest
2024
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–12.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$65.7M–$176.6M after Steam's cut $119.4M–$271.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
321k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World
V Rising
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$32.8M–$88.2M after Steam's cut $59.6M–$135.6M before Steam's cut
$34.99
137k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.