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How many copies did Canvas Menagerie sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$614–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Canvas Menagerie and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Canvas Menagerie's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 207k–459k
best case 588k (missed messages.)
Games like Canvas Menagerie

A typical game among these

≈ 207k–459k copies

≈ $857k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: missed messages. at ≈ 448k–728k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 930 reviews in their first month; the range was 329 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Romance (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + LGBTQ+.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

missed messages.
2019
Est. copies
≈ 448k–728k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayVisual Novel
Dream Daddy: A Dad Dating Simulator
2017
Est. copies
≈ 216k–350k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$889k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
LGBTQ+Dating Sim
BAD END THEATER
2021
Est. copies
≈ 250k–406k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$687k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Multiple EndingsVisual Novel
A Date with Death
2023
Est. copies
≈ 371k–603k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dating SimVisual Novel
Our Life: Beginnings & Always
2020
Est. copies
≈ 342k–556k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelRomance
DRAMAtical Murder
2021
Est. copies
≈ 124k–202k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$682k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
LGBTQ+Sexual Content
My Vow to My Liege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 102k–165k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$280k–$752k after Steam's cut $509k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Female ProtagonistRomance
Hooked on You: A Dead by Daylight Dating Sim™
2022
Est. copies
≈ 169k–275k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$465k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $845k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive

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